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Nintendo Co. Ltd. today revised downward their earnings estimates for the first half and full fiscal year. Largely because of the continued strength of the Japanese yen, Nintendo lowered their earnings expectations for the six-month period ended September to ¥7b ($57m) from May forecasts of ¥30b ($243m), or 77%. The strong yen was responsible for a ¥4.5b loss in sales and ¥29b loss in the value of foreign assets. A strong yen hurts the profits of Japanese exporters such as Nintendo by reducing the value of sales when repatriated to the Japanese currency.

While pretax profits excluding extraordinary items fell sharply, Nintendo's expectations of net profit for the period remained unchanged as the company's sale of its 49% stake in Rare Ltd. for $183m buoyed net income. Full year estimates of group recurring profit through March of 2003 were lowered as well from ¥150b ($1.2b) to ¥110b ($892m). Estimates of group net profit were lowered from ¥90b ($731m) to ¥80b ($650m). Nintendo's currency exchange forecasts for the second half of this year were revised to 123 yen/dollar and 121 yen/euro. This from earlier estimates of 130 yen/dollar and 115 yen/euro.

Nintendo's expectations on the fundamentals were also lowered. Nintendo reduced their sales expectation of GameCube by 17% and Game Boy Advance by 23% for the fiscal year ending March 2003. The company now set its GameCube shipment target to 10 million systems this fiscal year from an earlier target of 12 million. Game Boy Advance shipments will also be lowered to 15 million from 19 million. The move was largely a result of very soft hardware sales in Japan and Germany. 

On a positive note, Nintendo increased GameCube software shipment expectations to 55 million from 36 million. Satoru Iwata, President of Nintendo comments, "We plan to release several Nintendo-made big games later this year along with other software makers' strong titles. We believe GameCube's share of the U.S. market will rise to one-third from the current 20 percent after the Christmas shopping season." Iwata further stated that the company had no plans to lower GameCube's MSRP any time this year.

Nevertheless, Nintendo shares fell sharply this week as concerns about future growth set in and some industry analysts downgraded the stock. Nintendo shares fell to the lowest prices since 1999, finding an intra-day bottom of 10,940 on Thursday before fighting back to close at 12,050 on Friday.

October 04, 2002

Rick - Editor in Chief, GameCubicle


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